Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.394590 2.543016 2.705643 2.899091 3.125792 3.386915 3.716574
2025-08-24 2.226649 2.409222 2.618220 2.880141 3.207514 3.615584 4.186269
2025-08-31 2.113599 2.315736 2.554188 2.864427 3.271638 3.812976 4.642887
2025-09-07 2.044687 2.264132 2.529785 2.887164 3.378195 4.074129 5.253662
2025-09-14 1.935066 2.153561 2.421369 2.787621 3.302690 4.058058 5.414472
2025-09-21 1.876813 2.102133 2.382733 2.774810 3.343658 4.218559 5.931092
2025-09-28 1.810343 2.036162 2.320340 2.723167 3.320256 4.270317 6.257181
2025-10-05 1.793656 2.032051 2.337597 2.781972 3.467066 4.630813 7.431569
2025-10-12 1.788127 2.041356 2.372335 2.867463 3.665911 5.135231 9.464146
2025-10-19 1.749837 2.005420 2.342843 2.855111 3.701519 5.332244 10.839742
2025-10-26 1.720573 1.980020 2.326230 2.860299 3.766844 5.609111 13.098941
2025-11-02 1.673141 1.928383 2.270344 2.801046 3.711245 5.600559 13.956721
2025-11-09 1.638350 1.893932 2.239041 2.781043 3.730121 5.788415 16.912718
2025-11-16 1.606970 1.862860 2.210938 2.763834 3.751678 5.991107 21.607980
2025-11-23 1.578618 1.834859 2.185871 2.749549 3.776774 6.213608 30.511243
2025-11-30 1.562302 1.822663 2.182862 2.770380 3.872405 6.676025 99.352831
2025-12-07 1.515704 1.767160 2.114443 2.679352 3.733578 6.381756 66.954628
2025-12-14 1.493340 1.744836 2.094175 2.667642 3.756408 6.612783 NaN
2025-12-21 1.462364 1.709703 2.053839 2.620264 3.701108 6.574083 NaN
2025-12-28 1.460119 1.714640 2.072997 2.674261 3.865136 7.370529 NaN
2026-01-04 1.463780 1.727879 2.104984 2.752543 4.096567 8.665642 NaN
2026-01-11 1.445133 1.708748 2.086897 2.741266 4.121342 9.074375 NaN
2026-01-18 1.431177 1.695960 2.078071 2.746022 4.185254 9.765924 NaN